Pirates @ Blue Jays
2026-05-24Win probability
PIT
45.6%
TOR
40.5%
Extras needed
13.9%
Expected runs
PIT expected
4.41
TOR expected
4.26
Total expected
8.68
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–TOR) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.86% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.40% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.38% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.37% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.07% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.06% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.06% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.90% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 25.9% | 74.0% |
| 6.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 7.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 8.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 9.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →