Athletics @ Padres
2026-05-24Win probability
OAK
50.9%
SD
33.6%
Extras needed
15.5%
Expected runs
OAK expected
3.53
SD expected
2.97
Total expected
6.51
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (OAK–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 2 | 4.86% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.58% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.54% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.09% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.09% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.92% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.51% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.49% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 6.8% | 93.2% |
| 6.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 7.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 8.5 | 20.7% | 79.3% |
| 9.5 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →