Mets @ Marlins
2026-05-24Win probability
NYM
34.6%
MIA
50.9%
Extras needed
14.4%
Expected runs
NYM expected
3.41
MIA expected
3.95
Total expected
7.36
Total — 10/median/90
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Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.58% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.28% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.97% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.90% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.60% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.50% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.49% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.29% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| 6.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 7.5 | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 8.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| 9.5 | 20.5% | 79.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →