Twins @ Red Sox
2026-05-24Win probability
MIN
52.1%
BOS
33.4%
Extras needed
14.5%
Expected runs
MIN expected
4.01
BOS expected
3.37
Total expected
7.38
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.17% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.03% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.94% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.76% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.71% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.35% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.24% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.22% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 12.7% | 87.3% |
| 6.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 7.5 | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 8.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 9.5 | 21.1% | 78.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →