Astros @ Cubs
2026-05-24Win probability
HOU
26.7%
CHC
60.7%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
HOU expected
3.80
CHC expected
5.17
Total expected
8.98
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.73% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.58% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.49% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.43% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.88% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.83% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.80% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.68% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.4% | 70.5% |
| 6.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 7.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 8.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 9.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →