Tigers @ Orioles
2026-05-24Win probability
DET
31.4%
BAL
55.5%
Extras needed
13.1%
Expected runs
DET expected
4.20
BAL expected
5.14
Total expected
9.34
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (DET–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.49% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.36% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.32% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.21% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.14% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.96% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.95% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.85% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 6.5 | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| 7.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 8.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 9.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →