White Sox @ Giants
2026-05-24Win probability
CWS
51.8%
SF
35.2%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
CWS expected
4.72
SF expected
4.12
Total expected
8.84
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (CWS–SF) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.67% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.64% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.57% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.48% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.13% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.09% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.86% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.85% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| 6.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 7.5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 8.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 9.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →