Rockies @ D-backs
2026-05-24Win probability
COL
29.2%
ARI
57.4%
Extras needed
13.4%
Expected runs
COL expected
3.67
ARI expected
4.71
Total expected
8.39
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (COL–ARI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.09% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.63% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.54% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.53% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.16% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.10% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.03% |
| 2 – 4 | 2.91% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| 6.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 7.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 8.5 | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 9.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →