Indians @ Phillies
2026-05-24Win probability
CLE
51.0%
PHI
35.5%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
CLE expected
4.83
PHI expected
4.20
Total expected
9.03
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.40% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.27% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.19% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.18% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.03% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.96% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.92% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.78% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 6.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 7.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 8.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 9.5 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →